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Saudi Aramco IPO Clouded by Weekend Purge

07.11.2017 -

Doubt continues to be cast on whether Saudi Arabia’s planned initial public offering of 5% of its shares in national flagship oil and petrochemicals group Saudi Aramco will go ahead as initially announced –  all the more so in the wake of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman‘s wide-sweeping anti-corruption purge this past weekend.

Some experts quoted by the international press said they believe a private placement with Chinese or Russian companies could be an alternative to a listing. The US newspaper Washington Post’s contacts suggested that Aramco’s books may be hiding large payments to the royal family that it would find hard to explain to international investors.

Up to now, it has been unclear whether the envisaged international stock market debut would take place in London or New York, with US president, Donald Trump, beating the drum loudly for the latter. A private placement could exclude US investors, reports said.

Trump has been seeking closer ties between the US and Saudi Arabia. His son-in-law Jared Kushner reportedly visited the kingdom last week, and on Nov. 4 Trump tweeted: “Would very much appreciate Saudi Arabia doing their IPO of Aramco with the New York Stock Exchange. Important to the United States!”

In an interview with the British newspaper Financial Times published just prior to the prince’s coup, a former Saudi finance minister, Mohammed Al-Jadaan, said an ipo, being touted as the “largest in history,” was “just one option.” At the time, he said the listing was still being debated “at the highest levels” of the kingdom, with the only certainty an offering on the domestic Tadawul exchange.

The British newspaper quoted the head of the Tadawul as saying that the Saudi exchange was pushing to be the “exclusive” venue for the ipo. It added that any final decision will ultimately lie with Prince Mohammed, who is in charge of the country’s oil and economic affairs. Proceeds from the ipo were planned to be invested in non-oil sectors as part of the  drive to diversify the economy.

Financial Times said the offering was expected to generate record fees, with the kingdom valuing the total company at more than $2 trillion. The flotation of 5% could raise proceeds in excess of $100 billion if the valuation is reached, it calculated.

The public offering, centerpiece of the crown prince’s economic reform program, Vision 2030, “is still on track,” Robert McNally, president of the Rapidan Group consulting firm and an adviser to former US president, George W. Bush, told the Post. He said Trump’s tweet suggests the ipo “may not be dead as reported.”

Some observers have commented that the wave of arrests prompted by the prince’s action is a sign that the ipo and tough economic reforms could indeed continue, even if it means disclosures about wrongdoing at Saudi Aramco.

Ibrahim Al-Assaf, a former finance minister and a current director of Saudi Aramco, was among at least 17 princes, current and former government ministers and business executives taken into custody, according to the news agency Bloomberg, quoting the newspaper al-Eqtisadiah.

Assaf was arrested on charges of corruption linked to an urban expansion project in the city of Mecca, Bloomberg said, citing the Akhbaar 24 local news website. Also among those arrested was Prince al-Waleed bin Talal, a billionaire who has invested heavily in US stocks and had initially promoted the Aramco listing.

In separate news, the deal between Saudi Aramco and Petronas on Malayasia’s Refinery and Petrochemical Integrated Development (RAPID) project in Johor is still on, according to press reports. The two companies reportedly had faced what were said to be technical issues in finalizing the Saudi group’s $7 billion investment in the refinery project.